ELECTION LATEST – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  Five days before Super Tuesday, and a new poll is out from Investor's Business Daily: 

Despite her win in the Nevada caucuses Saturday, Hillary Clinton’s lead among Democrats over Bernie Sanders has evaporated nationally, 45% to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll. Last month, Clinton topped Sanders 50% to 38%.

On the GOP side, Donald Trump held steady at 31%. Ted Cruz dropped a point to 20%. Marco Rubio, however, saw his support climb eight percentage points to reach 18% — a clear sign that much of the support of candidates dropping out the race have been gravitating to Rubio.

Meanwhile, Ben Carson has 8% and John Kasich has risen to 7%. Both are resisting pressure to step aside.

Trump’s lead, however, narrows considerably when first and second choices are combined. While 42% picked Trump as either their first or second choice, Cruz and Rubio were tied at 39%.

An analysis of the 12 states that vote for GOP candidates on Super Tuesday shows that Trump holds a similar lead, with 31% support. However, Rubio moves into second place at 23%, followed by Cruz at 20%.

Given Trump’s definitive win in Nevada on Tuesday, a string of victories on March 1 could give him a virtually insurmountable lead for the GOP nomination.

Clinton performs better in the Democrats’ Super Tuesday states, where she leads Sanders by 50% to 39%.

COMMENT:  That is one poll, but a respected one.  What the political world will be talking about from now on is convention delegates.  In a race for the presidential nomination, that is all that counts.  Conventional wisdom holds that it will be a Clinton versus Trump race.  But, on the Republican side at least, there could be an open convention, meaning that no candidate enters the national convention with enough votes to be nominated.  Generally, delegates are pledged to a particular candidate only through the first convention ballot.  Then, chaos, and great television, as the convention struggles to nominate.

We haven't had a contested (open) convention since 1976, when Ronald Reagan challenged incumbent President Gerald Ford.  Ford won the nomination but lost the election.  Reagan bounced back four years later, and won both.

February 25,  2016